Value betting

There are only two ways to profit from esports betting; pure luck or common sense. Pure luck is not worth going into detail with as there are not a lot of people who win big without having any background knowledge. In other words, chances of that happening is next to none. In general, you are almost certain to lose money if you ignore the basic elements of esports betting.

Basically, it is about understanding that esports betting is mathematics. Yes, there are also other things – but the mathematics are not to be missed.

Basic probability calculation

Mathematics is the basic tool for a bookmaker. And it has to be your tool as well, if you want to have a chance of beating the bookmakers. In fact, it is all about basic probability calculations.

When a bookmaker sets an odds, they first assess the chance of the outcome (for example Astralis to beat Team Vitality). The chance is estimated to be 50 percent (fictional example). Based on that number, the bookmaker then sets the odds of Astralis winning.

With a theoretical payback of 100 percent, the odds would be 2.00 (100/50). In the real world, the payback will be somewhat lower (the bookmaker has to make money), for example at 90 percent – and the odds will then be 1.80.

Make a chance assessment

And what are you going to do then? You must make your own chance assessment (or listen to someone who can) – and on that basis assess whether the bookmaker’s odds are set correctly. It is about finding out if the odds are good or bad, and you do this by setting the odds in relation to the chance of the outcome.

This is where the science becomes a bit inaccurate. Because how do you calculate that chance? We’ll get to that, don’t worry – but first we need to have all the basics in place.

Value betting

The basic thing in this important principle; that odds and chance must be set in relation to each other. Thus, you can see if there is value in the bet. Value bets or value betting, in other words.

Well but Team Vitality is not going to win the match. Astralis will. So, does the odds really matter? Yes. Because there is only one thing that is certain in the world of esports betting – and that is nothing is certain!

Even big teams and heavy favorites lose from time to time. And if you keep betting on the big teams and heavy favorites all the time, no matter what the odds are, you will eventually end up with a deficit.

Do not bet on odds that are too low; this will undermine your betting budget. The winning bets will have to cover the losing bets – and since you don’t know in advance which ones are winners and losers (and there will always be losing bets), you should ALWAYS look for reasonable odds in relation to the risk/chance.

Such bets are, as mentioned before, called value bets. If you always play value bets, you will eventually make a profit.

 

Is Value betting really that easy? The answer to that question is yes and no. It is not easy to make realistic chance assessments and identify value bets. It’s actually pretty damn hard. You really have to be competent and know what you are doing.

 

Knowledge is power

In this world there are millions of so-called experts. But how many have a real sense of CS:GO? Or Dota 2, LoL, Overwatch? A lot of people watch some matches on Twitch once in a while – but that does not mean they know enough to be a competent esports better.

It’s not enough to know that “Astralis is a damn good team…” It takes time and energy to get acquainted with a given esport. You have to follow it closely and research diligently. The less you know, the more unrealistic your odds assessments will be – and the more the bookmakers will be able to profit from you.

Catch the bookmaker on the wrong foot

But if you are stubborn and persistent, then from time to time you can come across information that the bookmakers are not aware off. And this is where you can truly find value bets (that is to say where the odds are set too high in relation to the risk/chance).

To be a competent esports better, you must be able to navigate the vast sea of information on the internet. You need to keep track of online news, betting tip pages, team websites, statistics pages and much more.

Make up your own mind

You must remember to be realistic and critical. Can you trust any given information? Can you even trust the predictions and betting tips that you get from us or any other source on the internet? Now, At Esportsbetting.gg, we provide betting tips and predictions that are written by people that have a huge interest and knowledge in the game. But no matter what, make sure to double check as much as possible and make up your own mind – and always remember that nothing is certain. A team or a coach can bluff to intimidate the opponent team and an expert can sometimes be misinformed. Anything can happen! At the end of the day. it’s your decision.

It is impossible to know everything about everything. You cannot familiarize yourself sufficiently with all esports and leagues. And if you want to bet on something you don’t know much about, then you have to listen to the so-called expert esports betters. These are people who deal thoroughly within that area of expertise.

But do not blindly believe in anyone; examine their payback percentages and analyses. Do they know what they are talking about? Do they have profits (over a long period of time)? Anyone can have a small plus over a short period of time. This is why it is important to keep an eye on them all the time. Even the best esports betters have bad stints. It goes up and down in the world of esports betting, that is how it is. Experts are only humans and they can “lose the touch” from time to time. Either because they burn out and lose the desire to research quite as diligently as it requires, or because they are unknowingly affected a bit too much by a bad stint.

Advice is good – But it’s your choice

Finally, one must be aware of whether the expert esports better has a chance assessment included in their analysis. This will very often not be the case – and that is a problem. It’s fine that the expert has knowledge about the game – but it is not always possible to play the exact same odds as the expert – The bookmakers often lower the odds as soon as they notice that the majority place their bets on a certain team or outcome. So what now? How far down is the odds playable and when does it turn into a non-value bet? This information will be impossible to find if the expert does not include a chance assessment. Therefore, be very careful if you follow experts without chance assessments – at least when the odds have dropped.

Also be careful if the odds drop with an expert who actually has both a chance assessment and profits. Check the average bet value in relation to the payback. If the average bet value is higher than the payback, the odds ratings are not credible; they are simply too optimistic. Therefore, you risk falling into the non-value bet trap (that is to say betting on odds that are actually too low if you follow a wrong chance assessment).

The ideal scenario is to combine these things. Have insight but at the same time use betting tips to get inspiration and to check up on your own thoughts. Listen to others but do it selectively and carefully.

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Written by KennyPowers

KennyPowers is a man of many talents, like being a Danish freestyle rapper with a bachelor's degree in Language and International Studies, English (LISE) from Aalborg University. Currently residing in Malta working as a SEO Executive for a big bookmaker, he offers a lot of insight into the gambling industry. He is also very well informed about the newest developments in FIFA and CS:GO.