Arbitrage Betting

Arbitrage betting is based on the betting sites’ different assessments of the same esports event. The method can be used to secure a profit, regardless of the outcome of the given esports event. Arbitrage betting is also sometimes referred to as sure betting.

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How to use arbitrage betting

There are two ways/methods to take advantage of arbitrage bets. The first deals with the betting sites’ different odds on the same event. Here one often deals with events where there are two different outcomes. An example could be CS: GO betting, where either one team or the other will win the match.

By comparing the assessment of two bookmakers, one can thus in some cases find an arbitrage bet that ensures a win by placing the right stake on the two outcomes.

arbitrage betting illustration

When doing arbitrage betting, there are two steps to follow:

1. First you need to calculate the total arbitrage percentage.

2. Then you need to calculate the possible profit and calculate how big a stake you need to put on a certain outcome.

It might sound a bit complicated and look a bit confusing, but the formulas you need to do this are very straightforward. Once you have tried to make the calculations a few times, it does not take more than a couple of minutes.


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Calculating arbitrage betting

If betting site A gives odds 2.10 on the home team to win while betting site B gives odds 2.10 on the away team to win, it is clear to most that you are guaranteed a win if you play 10 euros on each outcome. But it can be more difficult to see through if you get odds 1.40 on the first outcome from betting site A, while you get odds 3.80 on the second outcome at betting site B.

In this situation, it is not an arbitrage bet if 10 euros are played on both outcomes, but in return, there is a sure profit if a certain, calculated stake is played on each of the outcomes. The two different odds from the two different betting sites must have an arbitrage percentage of less than 100 before making an arbitrage bet.

Here is the formula for calculating the arbitrage percentage:

1 / 1.40 x 100 = 71.42%

1 / 3.80 x 100 = 26.31%

This means that the total arbitrage percentage is 97.73% (71.42% + 26.31%).

So, to find the total arbitrage percentage, 1 must be divided by each of the two odds and then be multiplied by 100. The two calculated percentages must then be added together, after which the total arbitrage is found. If it is below 100 (as in the example), you can then start the last part of your arbitrage bet; to calculate precisely how much money you need to bet on each outcome in order to secure a profit!


Calculation of possible profit

First, the possible profit must be calculated. This can be done by using the following formula:
Profit = (Total stake / total arbitrage percentage in decimal) – total stake

In our previous example, the calculations will look like this if 100 euro is staked:

Profit = (100 / 0.9773) – 100 = 2.323 euros


Calculation of amounts to be staked

To calculate how much to stake on each outcome, you must use the formula; total deposit x individual arbitrage percentage / total arbitrage percentage.

Therefore, our calculations will look like this:

(100 x 71.42) / 97.73 = 73.079 euros

(100 x 26.31) / 97.73 = 26.921 euros

This means that 73.079 euros will have to be played on the first outcome at odds 1.40 and 26.921 will have to be played on the second outcome at odds 3.80 to get a profit of 2.323 euros.


Arbitrage betting step by step

1. Calculate the total arbitrage percentage: (1 / odds * 100). MUST be below 100!

2. Calculate the possible profit: (total deposit / total arbitrage percentage in decimal) – total deposit.

3. Calculate the amount to be staked: (total deposit * individual arbitrage percentage) / total arbitrage percentage.

4. Place your bet for the calculated stakes.

6. Risks with this type of betting

It is worth noting that there are certain risk factors associated with arbitrage betting. The betting sites are very aware of players who use arbitrage betting and can without notice either close the player’s account or delete their bet if they suspect that the player is arbitrage betting. To place an arbitrage bet is not illegal whatsoever, but the betting sites are not very fond of the concept.

In addition to this, it often takes a lot of effort before it can really pay off, which at the same time increases the risk that the betting sites discover it. If done in the correct manner, however, it is a very solid way of earning a sure profit!

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Written by KennyPowers

KennyPowers is a man of many talents, like being a Danish freestyle rapper with a bachelor's degree in Language and International Studies, English (LISE) from Aalborg University. Currently residing in Malta working as a SEO Executive for a big bookmaker, he offers a lot of insight into the gambling industry. He is also very well informed about the newest developments in FIFA and CS:GO.

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